The Oklahoma City Thunder's championship window is under financial pressure, with ESPN predicting the team may eventually trade either Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams.
ESPN ranked the Thunder as the NBA's top team for the future, projecting them as title contenders from 2026 to 2029. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a two-time MVP, and both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are All-NBA talents. But the league's strict salary cap creates a major problem.
Gilgeous-Alexander is set to begin a supermax contract. Williams and Holmgren will soon start their second contracts. Combined, those three players are projected to consume about 85% of the Thunder's payroll for the rest of the decade. That leaves just 15% to fill out the rest of the roster, a nearly impossible task.
The financial squeeze is not a future theory. We saw its effects this past offseason. The Thunder executed cost-cutting moves, trading Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins to Eastern Conference teams. More moves like that could follow. The 85% figure for the core trio doesn't even include potential extensions for key role players like Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell.
If those deals happen, the money for the supporting cast shrinks even more. Analyst Ben Golliver wrote that Oklahoma City will shift from a big three to a big two because of second apron tax penalties. He stated Gilgeous-Alexander's salary spike in the 2027-28 season will force the Thunder to make sharp cuts or consider moving Williams or Holmgren.
Trading a foundational piece like Holmgren or Williams would drastically change the team's identity. The Thunder are currently in a golden window to compete for championships. They have one title already and are the first seed for the third straight year. Moving a pillar of that success, especially if they win another title this season, would be a tough sell to fans.
Golliver suggested constructing a new version of the 2012 James Harden trade could help Oklahoma City maintain depth and long-term sustainability. But a lot can change in the NBA before the next two summers. The team's immediate focus is on the court.
The financial talk contrasts with on-court success.
The trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren is producing wins now. But the NBA's economic rules may force a painful choice between keeping that trio intact and building a complete, sustainable roster around them. For now, Thunder fans can enjoy the wins while front office planners study the numbers.
