The Oklahoma City Thunder's championship-winning core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren could be broken up after the 2026-27 NBA season due to looming salary cap constraints. A recent analysis suggests the financial weight of their contracts will force the franchise to make a difficult decision, with Holmgren potentially being the odd man out.
Oklahoma City's front office executed a brilliant rebuild, culminating in the franchise's first NBA title last season. Key moves included hiring head coach Mark Daigneault and acquiring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The team's success was powered by its young stars, leading to massive contract extensions for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren after their championship run.
But those deals create a major financial problem. When the extensions kick in, the Thunder could have around $207 million committed to just seven players for the 2027-28 season. That number would push them deep into the NBA's second tax apron. While the apron threshold is expected to rise, future extensions for players like Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell make the current payroll unsustainable long-term.
NBA insider Sean Deveney identified trading Chet Holmgren as the "easier path" for Oklahoma City to remain a contender. Holmgren is owed over $196 million after this season. On a scale of 1 to 10, Deveney rated the possibility of a Holmgren trade next summer at a seven.
The big man's performance in last season's playoffs, particularly against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference semifinals, solidified his value. It also highlighted his importance in matchups against elite, lengthy opponents. Trading him would be painful but might provide the financial flexibility needed to retain other key pieces and add role players.
The Thunder's recent playoff history against the Spurs shows both their strengths and potential vulnerabilities.
The specific results from that intense series were: a 103-111 loss on May 31, a 91-118 loss on May 29, a 127-114 win on May 27, an 82-103 loss on May 25, and a 123-108 win on May 23. These games demonstrated the high-level competition in the West and the constant need for roster evaluation. You can review the team's full schedule and upcoming challenges on our schedule page.
Oklahoma City has built one of the deepest rosters in the league through exceptional scouting and development. Letting a foundational piece like Holmgren go would be a significant shift. The alternative involves making several smaller, more complex moves around the edges of the roster to shed salary, which Deveney suggests is a harder route.
The decision ultimately rests on whether the Thunder believe they can maintain championship contention with two max stars and a supporting cast, or if the unique trio is irreplaceable. The front office's history suggests they will make the cold, calculated choice for long-term health, even if it means moving a fan favorite. The next year will be critical for evaluating this core's final run together.
